Forecasting & Quantification
Catalog

  • Assemble a national team of experts in a working group to run the TB -quantification process.
  • Gather key inputs and ensure the quality of the data is sufficient to make forecast.
  • Develop a National forecast for the product using the appropriate quantification Steps (e.g. Regimen Master, Parameter Master, Enrolled cases, Expected Cases etc.)
  • Develop a supply plan based on the forecasting exercise
  • Review and adjust supply plans regularly, based on uptake and consumption trends

Forecasting & Quantification Tools and Resources

Quantification is the ongoing exercise which is conducted by the team of stakeholder, consultants, procurement officers and service providers.
This team is involved in the entire forecasting process from data collection to analysis the data.
In addition forecasting result to be validated by the key stakeholders.

Regimen Master

Regimen is a box of anti-TB drugs, recommended by WHO according to patient's weight bands and phases of treatment. These boxes contain formulations and combinations of anti-TB drugs that are standardized for three weight bands 16 KGs - 29 KGs, 30 KGs - 45 KGs and above 45 KGs. Also the treatment is separated by Phase 1 and Phase 2

Parameter Master

Parameter master is a process in which we describe the details related to forecasting of regimen/Drugs. Parameters for the quantification are quantification reference number, quantification start date, quantification end date, lead time, minimum months of stock, maximum months of stock and regimens for which to forecast.

Enrolled Cases

The number of enrolled patients is known as enrolled cases. These are the patients who are undergoing treatment and are taking medicines for TB under certain regimens. The number of these patients is decided on the basis of months.

Expected Cases

The number of patients that are likely to be expected within the period of quantification for the regimen, are known as expected cases. This possible number of patients is determined on the basis of certain guidelines which are given by the WHO.

Stock of Medicines

Stock of all medicines under the regimen at state stores, district stores, CMSS, GMSD are included in this. Stock of quantification is formed by including the stock of medicine available at these stores on the date of commencement of quantification as well as the pipeline stock of medicine arriving at those stores.

Medicines Detailed Report

Based on the parameters, the number of expected and enrolled patients, and the stock of medicines, detailed reports are generated that provide the estimated quantity of medicines to be procured. These reports are Parameter Master Report, Enrolled Case Report, Probable Case Report, National Summary Report and Individual Medicine Report.

Quantity and Cost Report

Cost is also an essential part of forecasting in supply chain management. The cost is determined on the basis of the quantity coming from the medicine detailed report . The cost of the medicines is fixed as per WHO guidelines. In addition cost is also defined as per the agencies rate like GMSD, CMSS.

Additional Cost Report

Additional taxes or costs like freight tax, Insurance, Shipment Inspection, Agent Fee and Custom Clearance are applicable on the medicines. This additional taxes or cost will also be added with the cost of procured drugs.

Procurement Plan Report

Forecasting is mainly used in supply chain management. As a result, it is necessary to have a plan for to run the supply smoothly. This will provide a clear picture to everyone i.e. suppliers, stores, procurement officials.

Consignee List Report

The supplies are divided into tranches to ensure smooth operation of the supply of medicines to the store/warehouse. And make sure that everything about procurement will go as planned.
01

Regimen Master

As per the guidelines provided by the Central TB Division, user add/modify the regimen in this master. All below mentioned details are added through the regimen master:

  • Regimen name
  • Regimen phase
  • Regimen course type (Monthly / yearly)
  • Drug name
  • Drug per day / week dosages
02

Parameter Master

In this module, User starts its forecasting for monthly / quarterly / yearly as per its requirements.

Forecasting depends on some parameters mentioning below:

  • Inventory Date – Starting date of Quantification.
  • End Date of Quantification – End Date.
  • Lead Time (In Months) – Expected time (in months) to get stock.
  • Minimum Months of Stock – Buffer Stock (In Months).
  • Maximum Months of Stock – Stock in Store (In Months).
  • Regimen – Select the regimen on which forecasting is to be made.

03

Enrolled Cases

Enrolled cases are the number of patients which are already put in treatment under the regimens. These number provide the exact consumption of the drugs and these number provided by the CTD itself. These are the past numbers of patients.

In Addition, This system provides the excel download and upload option to make this system feasible to the user.

04

Expected Cases

Expected cases are the number of patient which will be expected to be in regimens for treatment. These number provide the estimated consumption of the drugs. In addition, these number of patients are assumed by the CTD officials under some guidelines.

In Addition, This system provides the excel download and upload option to make this system feasible to the user.

05

Stock of Medicines

While doing Quantification, the user can consider Stock position at all Store level and Stock on Order (Pipeline) as stock for better forecasting.

For example – Stores like SDS, DDS, CMSS, GMSD, TU, PHI, DRTBC, CBNAAT, NODAL – DRTB and TRUENAT LAB, here only SDS, DDS, CMSS, GMSD stock are take into account.

06

Medicines Detailed Report

Here Quantification answers the question: “How much will be procured and when will it be delivered?” This process of estimating the quantities and costs of the products required for a specific health program (or service), and determining when the products should be delivered to ensure an uninterrupted supply for the program.

Other Sub Reports
Parameter Master Report, Enrolled Patients Report, Expected Patients Report, Summary Report, Individual Medicine Report, Cases Report.

07

Quantity and Cost Report

Based on the calculation in Medicines Detailed Report, this report is generate the final Quantity to be procure and cost involve to procure Drugs.

In this report, User enters current USD value and then selects the Procurement Agency i.e. CMSS and GMSD.

08

Additional Cost Report

Some other charges like Freight, Insurance, Estimated Pre-Shipment Inspection, Procurement Agent Fee, and Customs Clearance are entered to calculate the final Procurement Cost.

09

Procurement Plan Report

This procurement report allows an organization to demonstrate how its procurement activities deliver value for money, contribute to the realization of its broader goals and objectives, and provide a panoramic snapshot of the effectiveness of its procurement strategy.

10

Consignee List Report

The best benefits of delivery scheduling come through the use of Quantification to provide the greatest customer experiences while minimizing costs and maximizing fleet productivity. Below parameters are captured, in this process.

  1. User select the store type, whether it is Central warehouse or GMSD.
  2. How much quantity they want? (100% or Less)
  3. How many schedule they want? (1, 2, 3 or 4)